Braking demand, innovation in supply and high-level intelligent driving to accelerate penetration
DUBLIN, July 12, 2021 / PRNewswire / – The “Global and Chinese Lidar Market Analysis Report, 2021-2025” report was added to ResearchAndMarkets.com offer.
Today, consumer detection sensors have their own performance limitations. From the point of view of technical performance, lidar is the optimal detection hardware solution, and intelligentization is a track with extremely important consumption attributes, which is important to improve the driving experience of consumers (mainly ADAS).
Intelligentization has three links: sensing, decision-making and control, and lidar is the central sensor at the sensing level. In addition, the realization of a laser radar is also the core of creating a software algorithm to achieve the curve catching at the intelligent level of the main engine plant except Tesla.
As part of the hardware integration strategy, lidar will speed up loading at level L3 and above. The scale of the global market will be 48.3 / 120.6 billion yuan in 2025/2030, and the CAGR is expected to exceed 80% in the next decade. Smart driving is a technological upgrade for the automotive industry.
The L2 penetration rate of new cars in China is 15% in 2020, the target penetration rate of L2 + L2 + L3 2025/2030 is 50% / 70% and the target penetration rate of L4 in 2030 is 70%. At present, the smart upgrade of major manufacturers has entered the equipment competition phase with on-board hardware, and the hardware system capable of upgrading to L4 / L5 has been accelerated to be loaded in the following new cars . Lidar is the fastest growing new hardware subfield. In 2021/2025/2030, the scale of the global market was RMB 5/ 483 / 120.6 billion, and the 80% CAGR was over 80% in ten years.
Technical route: Mixed solids are expected in the short to medium term to dominate, and the penetration of pure solid OPA will increase in the long term. The layout and benefits of each participant are different. Considering the cost of mass production, vehicle specifications and product size, we predict that subsequent mass production of lidar will be mainly semi-solid in the short to medium term, and the penetration rate of the Pure solid takeover will increase in the long run.
At present, the layout and advantages of market players are different: Velodyne mechanics is the absolute leader, and Hesai has strong competitive strength; In terms of a hybrid semiconductor mirror, Valeo was first mass-produced (Scala jointly developed with Ibeo), and DJI and Innovusion will soon be mass-produced; Luminar is the absolute leader in hybrid semiconductor MEMS, and its technological maturity and accumulation of customers occupy a leading position.
Innoviz and Aeva also have some advantages due to cost and FMCW solution advantages; Ibeo in Solid State Flash is mass produced and solid state OPA is a long term solution. Quanergy has accumulated a lot and is still being optimized. Aeva is a representative company of the FMCW regime.
From the introductory period to the growth period, we believe that the team, the technology, the customers and the funds become the winners and the losers of the competition. At present, on-board lidar has gradually entered the growth phase from the launch period, with great uncertainty. In the future, the ability of the backbone of the team, the selection and research and development of technical routes, the development of mass production customers and the ability of financial support will influence the competition model of the lidar in the growth phase.
From the current point of view:
- From a team perspective, the core teams of current market players all have a solid background in optoelectronic technology.
- From a technical point of view, each player has different routes and reserves. Today, luminar is a leader in the field of mixed solids
- From the customer perspective, Luminar, Innoviz, Ibeo, Sagitar, Velodyne and Aeva are at the forefront of OEM support and cooperation
- In terms of capital, Velodyne and Luminar, which are the first to be listed, and Hessai, Innoviz and Aeva, which will soon be listed, have accumulated financing of several billion RMB, which occupy a leading position in terms of reserve of capital.
Main topics covered:
1 Overview: The basic sensing component of intelligent driving is determined by both supply and demand
1.1 What is lidar?
1.2 Industry driving factors: demand drag, supply innovation and high-level smart driving to accelerate penetration
1.2.1 short-term dimension: brake on demand, innovation in supply
1.2.2 Long-term dimension: The penetration rate of high-level automatic driving is gradually increasing
2 Analysis of the spatial model: it is estimated that the world is approximately US $ 20 billion, and there are more semi-solid machines and manufacturers
2.1 Market space: it is estimated that the global space in 25/30 years will be $ 12.9/ 19.5 billion
2.2 Model Analysis: There are many mechanical and semi-solid manufacturers in the current configuration, and technology giants are entering the industry
3. Discussion of the technical trend: laser radar is essential, and semi-solid and solid are the trends
3.1 Dimension of the technical drawing: Do you use a laser radar?
3.1.1 What are the plans?
3.1.2 Tesla: Adopt the vision-oriented scheme without laser radar
3.1.3 Tesla Adopts Visual Solution: “Software Service Provider” Business Model Needs a Low-Cost Store to Start
3.2 Dimension of product shape: Which laser radar is used?
3.2.1 Mechanical laser radar: high precision and high cost, unable to pass vehicle regulations
3.2.2 Semi-solid mirror diagram: the technical route of the current ADAS scene has exceeded the vehicle specifications
3.2.3 Semi-solid vibrating mirror system -MEMS: it is expected to pass vehicle regulation to a later stage, and the potential for cost reduction is great
3.2.4 Pure solid state OPA scheme: Pure solid state scheme with the highest technical barriers
3.2.5 Pure Solid State Flash Scheme: A highly integrated scheme for instantly forming environmental images
3.3 Analysis of the cost reduction path
3.3.1 Mechanical cost disassembly and cost reduction path
3.3.2 Semi-solid cost disassembly and cost reduction path
3.3.3 Pure solid state cost disassembly and cost reduction path
4. In-depth analysis of national actors
- DJI Livox
- Leishen intelligent systems
- Wanji technology
- GeniusPros Technologies
For more information on this report, visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/npgvhe
Research and markets
Laura Wood, senior
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SOURCE Research and Markets